24 March 2008

Well, it looks like I might be out of a job soon.

Last year, the finance industry was responsible for nearly a third of all wages earned in the city, the highest in modern times. And each Wall Street job supports three workers in other sectors.

Analysts are predicting wider cuts across the industry, even among workers who had nothing to do with mortgages. A UBS analyst, Glenn Schorr, said the major banks had already cut 5 to 10 percent of their work forces, and he said he expected them to make cuts on a similar scale again in the next few months.

“It’s fair to, unfortunately, expect another wave of cuts as they batten down the hatches,” said Mr. Schorr, who covers several major banks.

That worry has been building since last summer, just after two hedge funds within Bear Stearns collapsed and the mortgage markets were beginning to freeze. Employment at securities firms in New York had rebounded since the 2001 recession and was nearing its all-time peak of 200,000 from before that downturn, according to the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association, a trade group.

Since August, the financial industry has gradually shed at least 20,000 jobs, mostly among those selling loans, those bundling loans into complex securities and those placing trading bets on the likelihood that borrowers would pay.

Now the pace of job losses is increasing. Significant cuts at Bear Stearns are almost certain. Citigroup is in the process of cutting 10 percent of the work force in its investment bank, or 6,000 people. Lehman Brothers announced 1,400 layoffs two weeks ago.Goldman Sachs said in January that it would reduce its global work force by 5 percent. On Friday, The New York Post reported that the cuts would rise to 20 percent, which would bring the total cut to 6,400 jobs. A spokeswoman for Goldman had no comment on the report.

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